Ebrahim Sahafizadeh; Mohammad Ali Khajeian
Abstract
Background and aims: Iran had passed the third peak of COVID-19 pandemic, and was probably witnessing the fourth peak at the time of this study. This study aimed to model the spread of COVID-19 in Iran in order to predict the short-term future trend of COVID-19 from April 23, 2021 to May 7, 2021.Methods: ...
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Background and aims: Iran had passed the third peak of COVID-19 pandemic, and was probably witnessing the fourth peak at the time of this study. This study aimed to model the spread of COVID-19 in Iran in order to predict the short-term future trend of COVID-19 from April 23, 2021 to May 7, 2021.Methods: In this study, a modified SEIR epidemic spread model was proposed and the data on the number of cases reported by Iranian government from February 20, 2020 to April 23, 2021 were used to fit the proposed model to the reported data using particle swarm optimization (PSO) algorithm. Then the short-term future trend of COVID-19 cases were predicted by using the estimated parameters.Results: The results indicated that the effective reproduction number increased in Nowruz (i.e., Persian New Year, 1400) and it was estimated to be 1.28 in the given period. According to the results from the short-term prediction of COVID-19 cases, the number of active confirmed cases in the fourth peak was estimated to be 516 411 cases on May 2, 2021.Conclusion: Following the results from our short-term prediction, implementing strict social distancing policies was found absolutely necessary for relieving the Iran’s health care system of the tremendous burden of COVID-19.
Roghayeh Sheervalilou; Jamal Ahmadzadeh; Sahel Alavi; Kazhal Mobaraki; Saman Sargazi; Milad Shirvaliloo; Ali Golchin; Ali Yekanlou; Sahar Mehranfar
Abstract
Background and aims: In late December 2019, a cluster of progressive pneumonia-like respiratory syndromes broke out in Wuhan, China. As the number of cases continued to rise, the 2019 coronavirus disease (COVID-19) has been declared a global public health emergency. The causative agent, i.e., SARS-CoV-2, ...
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Background and aims: In late December 2019, a cluster of progressive pneumonia-like respiratory syndromes broke out in Wuhan, China. As the number of cases continued to rise, the 2019 coronavirus disease (COVID-19) has been declared a global public health emergency. The causative agent, i.e., SARS-CoV-2, is a highly contagious strain, which has resulted in the rapid worldwide outbreak of COVID-19. COVID-19 is an overwhelmingly transmissible disease that requires early and accurate diagnosis for proper and timely treatment of suspected cases. Materials and Methods: In order to access the scientific documentation and evidence related to the subject published during 2019 to 2021, English keywords including “COVID-19”, “SARS-CoV-2”, “Diagnosis”, “Immunoglobulin G (IgG)”, “Immunoglobulin M (IgM)”, and ‘Polymerase Chain Reaction (PCR)” were searched in Medline, PubMed, and Google Scholar databases and Persian versions of these keywords were also looked for in Jihad-e Daneshgahi’s Scientific Information Database (SID) and Iranian Journals database (Magiran) Results: With respect to diagnosis, serum antibody assays, nucleic acid sequencing, and radiologic evaluation are among the most reliable methods to rule out the disease in suspicious cases. This review is a synopsis of the pathogenesis of coronavirus, which will mainly focus on the diagnostic methods, as well as laboratory changes in immunoglobulins, polymerase chain reaction results, and computed tomography (CT) findings. Conclusion: Early diagnosis matters in that it not only contributes to the prevention of further transmission of the virus by asymptomatic carriers but also paves the way for clinicians to accurately choose the best therapeutic approach depending on the status of the patients.